President Donald Trump AP Rhetoric about the tax bill has gotten disconnected from the way Americans are likely to feel the bill's effects. At first, the tax bill would provide a tax cut to most Americans. Tax increases for many may come in later years. A near-term economic boost is likely. Added debt may slow the economy in the long run. Since it's looking pretty clear the Republican tax cut plan will become law, I think it's worth walking through how it's likely to be felt by Americans over the next few years, on their own tax returns, and in the broader economy. The centerpiece of the plan is a permanent reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20%. The plan also reduces individual tax rates somewhat, while eliminating various tax preferences and deductions. There's been a lot of focus on how the plan would eventually impose tax increases on huge swathes of the population — by 2027, the Tax Policy Center found 48% of tax filers would face tax increases, while only 31% would get a tax cut, relative to current law. This is because most of the personal income tax cuts in the bill are set to expire after a few years, in order to comply with complex Senate budget rules. Future Congresses may act to avert many of these tax increases by extending the tax cuts — though doing so would add even more to the federal debt than the $1 trillion-plus set to be added by this bill. But that's a question that won't be resolved until a few years in the future. In the near term, the bill will give most Americans a tax cut. It's also likely to boost the economy at least a little bit over the next couple of years — though its positive economic effects will fade over time, and may even turn negative by the end of the decade, depending on which analysis you believe. At first, the bill provides a tax cut to most Americans Paul Ryan. Zach Gibson/Getty Images Under the Senate version of the tax bill, most of the individual income tax cuts are set to become effective in 2018, while the corporate tax cuts become effective in 2019. And according to that Tax Policy Center analysis, 75% of American tax units* would get a tax cut under the Senate tax bill in 2019 — the